The more we know about 2004, the more we know how wrong the conventional wisdom was and has been:  No, Bush didn't win.  No, this wasn't a victory of right-wing so-called "values voters".  And no, marriage initiatives did not make a difference in the vote.

Kerry pollster Mark Mellman has found that [2004] anti-gay-marriage ballot initiatives didn't boost voter turnout for either party. Moreover, political scientists at MIT found that Bush's share of the 2004 vote increased in most battleground states, but not the three that had gay marriage bans on the ballot. Stephen Ansolabehere, one of the study's authors, concludes that the gay marriage referenda may have given Kerry a bump. "That suggests there might even be some sort of backlash against this kind of politics," he notes.

Of course, we already knew that civil rights battles should not wait for the mythical time when no elections are on the horizon, and that pro-equality plaintiffs can't be expected to back out of their years-long case because the timing is inconvenient.   We already knew that Karl Rove, not people fighting for their civil rights, "pushed the issue" in 2004.  Now we know that it didn't even work.  This should put an end to any more "those darn impatient gays!" nonsense about 2004.

Browsing the internals of the Washington Post polling data, and wanted to share some of the more interesting highlights.  I think that Obama's performance is a giant lawn dart skewering McCains hope to appeal to undecideds and moderates.

In my diaries, I've been following the Minnesota Senate race between Democratic humorist and friend of the late Paul Wellstone, Al Franken, and incumbant Republican beneficiary of relaxed lobbying rules Norm Coleman, but recently things just got weird.

Joe Lieberman (Himself-CT), former Democrat and McCain supporter, wrote an op-ed for the St. Paul Pioneer Press in which he extolled the virtues of Norm Coleman's position on the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations (PSI).

Let's have a look at what he said and try to figure out what he's really saying, shall we?

The latest in my postings on Oregon politics is a discussion of how I intend to vote when I get my ballot on Friday or Saturday. I am posting this now both to foster discussion and because, especially on the ballot measures, I am willing to listen to arguments on whether I am wrong to think about voting the way I intend to.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/showDiary.do ?diaryId=1411

Breaking news from ABC.  Florida Congressman Tim Mahoney, who ousted child predator Mark Foley in 2006, is mired in a scandal.

From  ABC:

West Palm Beach Congressman Tim Mahoney (D-FL), whose predecessor resigned in the wake of a sex scandal, agreed to a $121,000 payment to a former mistress who worked on his staff and was threatening to sue him, according to current and former members of his staff who have been briefed on the settlement, which involved Mahoney and his campaign committee.

The affair between Congressman Tim Mahoney and Patricia Allen began, according to current and former staffers, in 2006 when Mahoney was campaigning for Congress against Foley, promising "a world that is safer, more moral."
(ABC News)

Mahoney, who is married, also promised the woman, Patricia Allen, a $50,000 a year job for two years at the agency that handles his campaign advertising, the staffers said.
http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=5 997043&page=1

Mahoney was already in a tough race, and his campaign was heavily focused on "faith and family."  This will all but certainly hand the election to his opponent.

I'm tired of Democratic politicians putting their libido ahead of their party.  They should know the consequences of their actions, and if they decide that an affair is more important than the Democratic Party, they need to leave politics.

Fuck you, Tim Mahoney.

Obama cancelled a campaign stop in North Dakota several weeks ago to focus on more critical states more likely to produce electoral votes. In some cases, there is no polling to speak of.

But the Fargo Forum today issued a poll showing Obama with a 45-43 lead over McCain. While that is a statistical dead heat, it has to be unwelcome news to McCain's campaign.

North Dakota only has 3 electoral votes, but a break in one very red state suggests others may be moving as well. The Forum poll and story are at: http://tinyurl.com/3sjko7

I seem to be hearing this of the country but where I live, in the PA09th, that is, The middle of the base of the Pennsylvania "T", including all of Blair, Bedford, Fulton, Franklin, and Huntington Counties, and parts of Cumberland,Cambria, Clearfield, Fayette, Indiana, Juniata, Mifflin, Somerset, Perry, and Westmorland Counties, Republicans are running for cover and hiding.

For example, our Congressman Bill Shuster (R-PA09) has refused four different invitations to debate.  Check the video

but wait there's more

Reading Bill Kristol's colunmn in today's New York Times, I had the following thoughts...

1.  I think his column today is a trial balloon. It looks like a plant from the McCain camp.

2.  It underscores the rock and a hard place position that McCain has put himself in.

3.  If McCain follows Kristol's advice, does a little mea culpa, and then moves on in a positive tone it creates huge problems for him:

   A.  Anything even the slightest bit negative will ring of hypocricy, and the MSM will take great pleasure in calling McCain on it.

   B.  It undermines McCain's unique value proposition, "seasoned judgement."  If he has such good judgment, why did he choose to run his brand, and his campaign into the ground with negative attacks, which he concedes was the wrong thing to do?

4.  If McCain continues as is, then only some kind of earth shattering external event can bring him within reach.  This could be another attempt by Bin Laden to influence the election, or it could be some truly disturbing dirt on Obama, but it has to be of that magnitude.

5.  My prediction...  McCain will do a little of both.  He will not attack Obama on Wednesday, and he will try to take a more positive tone, but he will not issue any mea culpa, and it will be framed by EVERYONE except his immediate campaign staff as a last failed opportunity to change the trajectory of the election.